The Presidential primaries for the Democatic and Republican parties are based on delegate counts. Who wins a delegate depends on a process that varies state by state: some have a winner take all, some are proportional per the popular vote, some are proportional based on votes within a district, some are proportional based on the number of Democrats in a district, and some are a mixture creating a virtually incomprehensible mathematical concoction.
The problem is, they are running to be a candidate who will be elected based on Presidential electoral votes. Not the popular vote. Certainly not the weird primary votes. Simply – a winner take all based on who wins the popular vote in a state.
Why engage in the ridiculous primary delegate count when a party should be evaluating who can win the electoral votes needed to be President in November?!
Do that, and …
The winner is, by a landslide – HILLARY CLINTON.
Huh, you say, how is that?
Simple. While Barack has won more states and is a little ahead in the overall popular vote, he has done so by running up big voting margins in little states. Hillary, on the other hand, has won the big states.
So far, Hillary has 240 electoral votes and Barack a mere 202.
If you add in Florida, which Hillary easily won, she has 267, or virtually the 270 needed to win the Presidential election.
Since only Hillary’s name was on the ballot in Michigan, her win there doesn’t really count. It does in Florida since everyone was on the ballot, and the demographics heavily favor Hillary anyway. In other words, who knows who would win in Michigan, but both candidates know Hillary would win again in Florida.
Even worse for Barack, many of the states he won in the primaries will never, ever, vote Democratic in the Presidential election. Those votes from Utah and many other western and southern states may have given him many primary delegates, but the electoral delegates the Democratic candidate will receive in November are virtually zero.
Why count votes for Barack from places like Utah, that could give him the Democratic nomination, when – in the real world – those votes will be meaningless in November. (Sorry Utah Democrats, but you know this is the reality of the situation.)
Deducting from Hillary and Barack the Republican red states that neither has a shot of winning in November, leaves Barack with barely anything.
The electoral math is just not there for him. Not even close.
Of course, if Barack wins the nomination many states favoring Hillary in the primaries will still vote Democratic in the November election. But the problem for Barack is obvious. The last two elections were so close that he cannot afford to let any state shift to the red.
The Democratic party could be committing electoral suicide by nominating Barack.
Not that I’m losing any sleep over this. Boo hoo. But it sure is interesting that the Democratic party has been almost silent on this issue.
You know the Republicans have run the numbers. (Karl Rove makes a good, successful living as a political strategist doing this type of math.)