This is a detailed analysis review of Denver Broncos’ starting quarterback Case Keenum’s passing statistics through the first six games of the 2018 season. In short, Keenum is horrible through the first three quarters of the game and only getting Tim Tebow-like stats. But then, in the fourth quarter, he is padding his stats to make them look better with short passes up the middle of the field the opponent has no problem letting him have while the clock runs out on another Denver loss.
pro-football-reference.com is the original source for the data in this review. That site has the play by play of each game, the results of plays and whether passes were deep or short, and whether they were to the right, left or middle of the play. I then put every play, throw and result into a spreadsheet and began calculating the results.
Here are Case Keenum’s overall quarterbacking statistics for a full game:
For this analysis we will now break these numbers down by quarter of play. For the first three quarters of games:
Now let us see what is happening in the all important 4th quarter, and comparing the numbers to what is happening in the first three quarters:
The contrast is stark and amazing.
For the first three quarters Case has but a 59 percent passing completion rate and is only averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Compare that to the fourth quarter where his numbers dramatically increase to an over 70 percent passing completion rate and an average gain or more than 8 yards per pass attempt.
I wish this was due to impressive, crunch-time and captain-comeback quarterbacking bringing the team to wins, but with a 2 and 4 record that has obviously not happened.
In the first game of the year against the Seattle Seahawks Keenum did lead the Broncos to a game winning touchdown in the 4th quarter. However, at the time there was over 11 minutes left in the game. For the remainder of the game Keenum only passed for 11 yards on but 2 completed passes. It was the defense which held on for the win..
Against Oakland Keenum did bring the team back from a 19-7 deficit and certainly deserves credit for a job well done with long drives in the final quarter to win the game.
The four recent losses in a row have been bad. Those games were against the Ravens, Jets, Chiefs and Rams.
In the above graphs I noted in red a couple interesting statistics.
First, the 8.95 yards per pass down the middle of the field in the 4th quarter with an 80 percent completion rate. That is incredible. The problem is when you realize these numbers come from the end of game when the teams are in garbage time. These are easy passes the opponent is intentionally giving up in the middle of field to let the clock run out. Keenum is not targeting the sidelines to save time in hopes of a last minute win.
These garbage time easy passes are significantly running up Case Keenum’s overall pass completion rate and yards per attempt. However, the numbers should not really count due to the garbage time context.
Another interesting statistic are Keenum’s throws to the deep right of the field. He has four interceptions in this area and a very high interception rate.
Overall – not a good performance or results from a starting quarterback. Looking at Keenum’s overall passing numbers can be misleading since they are significantly padded from end of game, garbage time “gimme” passes.
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