Amazon Coming For All Products

Amazon has recently made 3 changes impacting sellers:

1. Refusing to Pay Lost Profits for Damaged / Lost Items

Every year Amazon pays out tens of millions of dollars to sellers for their lost profits due to lost or damaged products

Instead of being a better company Amazon has tried to enforce a new rule saying Amazon will only reimburse – some – of the costs in making the product, and not the lost profit.

The law of all 50 states be damned that the measure of damages is lost profits … this is what Amazon is doing and daring sellers to sue err arbitrate.

But the real kicker is determining costs – and either accepting a lowball offer from Amazon of having to disclose your costs, materials, suppliers, processes, etc. Basically, trade secret information critical to many businesses.

2. Requesting Cost Data to Analyze Product Profitability

Amazon has been rolling out new tools for sellers to give Amazon their cost data for products so Amazon can conveniently calculate for them their profit margins on sales.

3. Demanding Cost Data for “Stolen Goods” Audits

Amazon now says to fight “stolen goods” it needs to demand from sellers:

“Copies of invoices, receipts or other similar documents that demonstrate where your products are produced or manufactured
These documents:

Should reflect the sales volume of your product across all Amazon marketplaces in the last 365 days

Should demonstrate your product’s full supply chain

Should include contact information for the supplier(s) and the original manufacturer. We may contact suppliers or manufacturers to verify the documents

Your documents should be able to trace your products to the original manufacturer even if you did not purchase them directly from the xoriginal manufacturer. This may require requesting additional invoices or supply chain documentation from your supplier if you are not sourcing directly from the manufacturer.

You may remove pricing information, but the rest of the document must be visible to enable adequate review of the documents you provide. For ease of our review, you may highlight or circle the ASIN(s) under review.”

By themselves for each there is a plausible reason. But it’s sort of like the government trotting out “terrorism” or “child trafficking” every time it creates a new anti privacy law that takes more of your information and reduces your privacy.

Fact is, such laws are not used to fight “terrorism” and studies have shown zero terrorists being caught. Rather, the laws are used for the real, underlying purpose of collecting information to use against people to keep track of them, for tax collection, etc.

Only a naive fool would fail to believe that is what Amazon is doing, a company which already has thousands, maybe tens of thousands of products competing with sellers who pay to be on the Amazon marketplace, and a company that has previously been caught using seller’s private data to create its own competing products.

Amazon is collecting data it can used to decide which products are sufficiently profitable for it to come in and have their own competing products.

Allow the data on the input end to be fed into the black hole of AI that no one pretends to know how it works, and have plausible deniability on the other output end when asking AI to provide new product recommendations, costs and expected profitability.

It’s a huge data grab so that Amazon can continue to eliminate sellers and offer the products instead – reaping the profits that used to go to sellers to feed their families.

On top of that, Amazon prevents sellers from suing and its arbitration terms require individual resolution in Washington, a state not allowing punitive damages awards. It’s a legal get of paying card that means Amazon can be as abusive, fraudulent and malicious as it wants towards sellers and it faces no real repercussions.

The remedy is for the government can pry apart a business which has massive conflicts of interest and huge incentives to abuse sellers.

IMHO it’s doubtful that will occur, at least for many years given the millions Amazon / billionaire owners are paying to Trump, his businesses and related persons / interests, and then the glacial speed it would take legal proceedings to go through appeals and conclude.

This isn’t a pleasant post or prediction, but over the next few years I’m expecting to see an acceleration of Amazon products into people’s lives, including products others used to sell.

Why Amazon Has Become More Expensive And It’s Stock Price is Lagging

If you’re a shopper that pays attention you will have noticed prices in Amazon have been escalating the past few years – and Amazon has said its prices will go higher with tariffs as an excuse.

At the same time Amazon’s stock has floundered – dropping 6 percent over the last year as this is written, and substantially lagging the overall market for years.

What is going on?

As an Amazon seller let me pull back the curtain a bit as to what has happened with Amazon.

1. Fees have skyrocketed. As you would expect, when a business has higher costs they are typically passed along to the consumer. When Amazon adds new fee after new fee after new fee sellers raise their prices.

It’s not just new fees but an avalanche of new metrics sellers must meet. For example, Amazon cut by almost 40% the time allowed for an order to be delivered by the post office, UPS, FedEx, etc (from 8 days to 5 days), and if more than 10% of deliveries fail to meet the new standard then a seller can lose their ability to sell – UNLESS – they pay Amazon “protection money” by buying shipping from Amazon. Then, so long as Amazon is paid for the shipping Amazon doesn’t care how long it takes an order to be delivered.

If that sounds like mafia extortion – having to pay X to be “protected” from X – well yeah. I spoke with an account manager and my takeaway was that many sellers are complaining about this and the arrangement smells.

2. Amazon has shifted emphasis from making sales to making money from advertising clicks whether or not a sale is ever made.

There is supposedly a document saying Amazon has been “poisoning” the search results to not immediately show what someone is searching for and using tactics designed to cause someone to “click around” to find a product they want. The “click around” is a payment from the advertiser to Amazon.

The advertising situation is related to reason #1 – increased costs. When a seller has to pay more for advertising to get a product seen and sold that additional cost is going to be reflected in the product price.

It’s also a bad experience for shoppers. Amazon has turned into an advertising flea market where the company would rather pound a consumer to death with a ton of ads instead of showing a product the customer actually wants to buy.

3. Backend disaster. The general public would be stunned at how many functional problems exist for sellers. Programming is continually broken and features are continually changing, make no sense, or are broken. Bots and now AI run amok making bad decisions. It is a daily adventure for sellers that can consume a significant amount of time. Time is money and that also causes prices to increase.

There is no question that Amazon is – by far – the most time consuming marketplace I have ever experienced for a seller to navigate.

4. Lack of support. Amazon long ago outsourced its seller support to India because one of the poorest countries on the planet happens to have a lot of people who can somewhat read English due to British colonialization.

The result is jaw dropping incompetence. There are online reports of support employees admitting they just simply close cases rather than try to provide actual support. In part, I believe due to metrics of how they are evaluated. Apparently, the faster a case is closed the better than appear.

But that is par for the course. There are now reports that even programmers are now being pushed to be faster and faster because of AI, and they feel akin to fulfillment center employees who have long been pushed to be faster and faster.

There are thousands upon thousands of complaints about support in Amazon’s seller’s forum. Many say they just give up on issues, often resulting in products being deleted and sales lost. I’ve done. At some point the hassle, aggravation, and emotional harm combined with lost time is not worth trying to correct a problem. Just delete the product and move on.
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The result of these issues is there are times I feel like I could spend 24 hours a day, every day, trying to deal with Amazon.

I have no reason to believe the situation will get any better.

But I have learned to shop around more to find better deals. I am finding many products are cheaper on other sites. Amazon does have value for giving out refunds like candy so if a product looks questionable I might buy on Amazon just to make use of the refund policy.

The ironic result of all this, looking at the stock and company income statements going back a few years: is that while the company continues to grow more revenue, the actual revenue growth has dropped in half. Ouch. Operating expenses have almost doubled but growth has not.

Perhaps the new fees and shift to advertising revenue are an attempt to make up for this problem, but I see them as short-term bandaids that actually make the marketplace worse and longterm financials more iffy.

I say the company should focus on how to simplify selling for sellers, cutting fees, scaling back the advertising overload, and actually trying to show customers what they want to buy (even if there is no advertising for it) so that sales increase. Simplicity should reduce all the broken issues and cut costs, and more sales lead to future more sales outweighing advertising lost revenue.

Overloading buyers with a ton of ads for products they are not actually searching for, while burying relevant products because they may not be as profitable in the click around for Amazon, is as piss-poor longterm strategy. It is not good for buyers. It is not good for sellers. It will eventually not be good for Amazon.

In other words – get back to actually being consumer focused instead of pretending what is happening is actually good for anyone.

Cut sellers costs so they can cut prices. Show the most relevant search results a buyer is searching for to increase sales. And finally, once again, the tsunami of ads is an incredibly bad experience. Showing more and more and more ads is a bad strategy that Amazon has embarked on.

HelloCustom Price Comparison

HelloCustom is a personalization service for Print on Demand Products. It currently offers 3 pricing options including a “deal” which may not be a deal depending on your volume.

Here is the analysis:

Option 1: Pay $29.99 per month plus .29 per personalized product.

Option 2: Pay $299.98 yearly plus .29 per personalized product.

The second option is an average of $24.99 per month.

Over a year Option 1 costs $60 more than Option 2. The benefit of Option 1 is you can cancel the service without paying for a full year and thus save money. The break even is at 10 months or the savings by paying for a full year up front is not paying for 2 months of service. If you are going to use HelloCustom for more than 10 months then go with the yearly plan Option 2.

Option 3: Pay $67 lifetime plus .49 per personalized product.

This is where the math gets more tricky. The lifetime “Deal” at first blush seems like an incredibly good offer of getting lifetime service for only $67.

If you only have a few sales per month this is a no-brainer to avoid monthly fees.

But – and this is a big but – you’re paying almost twice as much per personalized product (.49 versus .29) a fact HelloCustom practically hides.

So now what is the break even point? If you have a lot of sales paying twice as much per product is a cost killer.

1165 sales in a year

If you have 1165 sales per year (97 per month or 3.2 per day) then Option 2 will cost you $637.73 per year.

1165 sales is the number at which the lifetime “deal” is no longer a deal as your yearly cost is $637.85.

This is just an analysis for one year: how many sales to break even.

If you use HelloCustom for 2 years then then break even point is 2665 sales over 2 years.

This is 1333 sales per year. Note how the number of sales goes up because you are paying so much more per product.

If you use HelloCustom for 3 years then then break even point is 4165 sales over 3 years.

This is 1388 sales per year.

Bottom line: the lifetime “deal” is a good deal if you make few sales. If you have success with many sales then it becomes a bad deal. Ironically, after the breakeven point – meaning you are making a lot of sales – you are better off with Option 2 paying a $300 yearly fee instead of the $67 lifetime deal.

Recommendation: HelloCustom currently says you can downgrade your plan at any time. The obvious strategy then is to sign up for the lifetime deal and then if you have success and reach a breakeven point in sales to then downgrade to the yearly payment to reduce your per item personalization fees.

Amazon Ads Destroying Its Marketplace

I saw a Facebook ad for Jack Archer jeans and decided to do a search for the product on Amazon.

Of the first 22 results:

15 Ads
4 Amazon own products
3 Actual sellers

No Jack Archer jeans.

But after scrolling through the advertising glop on the screen I mostly forgot about the jeans and was dumbstruck at the amount of paid advertising.

Amazon has truly changed from a marketplace of products to an ads emporium. It’s a horrible shopping experience.

Amazon would rather make money from ad clicks than actually making sales.

No wonder the stock price is failing to keep up with the overall stock market.

As a seller one will want to carefully choose what products to spend time listing on Amazon. Advertising is not allowed for some product categories. Amazon does not have its competing products for many categories. Choose for battles wisely to increase profit margins and the likelihood of getting eyeballs without being buried under a mountain of ads.

AI Could Clobber Amazon

When Amazon becomes a commodity and just another website, like how Amazon tries to make a commodity of sellers … it could get ugly.

As product searches begin shifting to AI I ran a few product searches comparing Amazon’s results with what ChatGPT and Grok are providing.

It was no contest even though AI is still in its infancy. Amazon continues to show fair to mediocre results which ignore what I was searching for and instead emphasize ads and results that make Amazon more money instead of immediately showing what I actually wanted.

AI was showing exactly what I was searching for – and providing additional useful buying information and recommendations Amazon does not show on its search results. And (currently) no ads.

Interestingly …. very interestingly, the AI results either did not include Amazon listings or surfaced Amazon listings that Amazon itself was not initially showing.

IMHO a lot of the AI I am seeing Amazon roll-out is crap, wasting my time, and entirely missing the big picture of how Amazon will start losing market share for initial product searches and why those searches will begin diverting ultimate purchase decisions elsewhere.

I then checked Amazon’s stock price and compared its valuation to the S&P 500 over YTD, 1 year and 5 years, and didn’t realize how bad Amazon is lagging the market. (And Amazon doesn’t even pay dividends). Heck, eBay is accelerating in value while Amazon drops. I’m not the only one seeing problems.

ChatGPT vs Grok AI Stock Volatility Analysis

Here is a test comparing two Artificial Intelligence services – ChatGPT and X’s Grok AI.

The first test is comparing the output to the question:

what are the most volatile types of investments

chatGPT:

The most volatile types of investments tend to have high potential for both gains and losses over short periods. Here’s a list of the most volatile investment types, ranked roughly from most to least volatile (though this can vary depending on market conditions):

1. Cryptocurrencies

Volatility Drivers: Speculation, lack of regulation, low liquidity, news sensitivity.

Examples: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin.

Risk Level: Extremely high. Prices can swing 10% or more in a single day.

2. Leveraged ETFs

Volatility Drivers: Use of financial derivatives to amplify returns (and losses).

Examples: ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ), Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares (SPXL).

Risk Level: Very high. Daily price movements are magnified 2x or 3x.

3. Penny Stocks / Micro-Cap Stocks

Volatility Drivers: Low liquidity, limited financial transparency, speculation.

Examples: Stocks under $5 per share, often on OTC markets.

Risk Level: High. Subject to pump-and-dump schemes.

4. Options Contracts

Volatility Drivers: Time decay, implied volatility, market direction.

Examples: Calls and puts on stocks, indexes, or ETFs.

Risk Level: Very high. You can lose your entire investment quickly.

5. Emerging Market Equities

Volatility Drivers: Political instability, currency risk, economic shifts.

Examples: Stocks in countries like Brazil, India, Turkey.

Risk Level: High. Sensitive to global risk sentiment.

6. Commodities

Volatility Drivers: Supply/demand shocks, weather, geopolitical events.

Examples: Oil, natural gas, gold, agricultural products.

Risk Level: High. Prices are very sensitive to macroeconomic changes.

7. Venture Capital / Startups

Volatility Drivers: Business risk, long timelines, lack of liquidity.

Examples: Private investments in early-stage tech companies.

Risk Level: Extremely high. Most startups fail, but returns can be massive if successful.

8. Foreign Exchange (Forex)

Volatility Drivers: Interest rate changes, geopolitical events, trade policy.

Examples: Trading currency pairs like EUR/USD or USD/JPY.

Risk Level: High. High leverage is often used, increasing risk.

Grok AI

The most volatile types of investments, based on their potential for significant price swings, include:

Cryptocurrencies: Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum can surge or plummet rapidly due to speculative trading, regulatory news, or market sentiment. For example, Bitcoin has seen single-day drops of over 20%.

Small-Cap Stocks: Companies with market caps under $2 billion often experience sharp price movements due to lower liquidity, higher risk, and sensitivity to news or earnings reports.

Penny Stocks: These low-priced stocks (often under $5) are highly speculative, with prices swinging wildly due to manipulation, low trading volume, or company-specific events.

Options and Derivatives: Contracts like call/put options or futures amplify price movements of underlying assets, often leading to 100% gains or losses in short periods.

Leveraged ETFs: These funds use borrowed capital to magnify returns (e.g., 2x or 3x the daily performance of an index), making them prone to extreme volatility, especially in turbulent markets.

Emerging Market Stocks: Equities in developing economies face volatility from currency fluctuations, political instability, or economic shifts.

Biotech Stocks: Early-stage biotech firms, especially those pre-revenue, can soar or crash based on clinical trial results or regulatory approvals.

Commodities (e.g., Oil, Precious Metals): Prices fluctuate due to supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, or economic shifts. For instance, crude oil prices have historically swung 30-50% in months.

Evaluation:

ChatGPT was better at backing up its list with examples and more specific reasons why the investment is volatile. Grok’s information was much more general.

Overall, though, for the most part they provided similar information. The completeness of the information was better when using both resources and not just one.

Then I did a second test:

what are the most volatile stocks traded on either NYSE or NASDAQ

ChatGPT

As of May 2025, several stocks traded on the NYSE and NASDAQ are exhibiting notable volatility. These stocks are characterized by significant price fluctuations, often due to factors such as market sentiment, company performance, and sector-specific developments. Below is a list of some of the most volatile stocks currently:

? Most Volatile Stocks (May 2025)

Tesla Inc (TSLA)

Price: $347.68

Intraday Range: $336.68 – $349.92

Volume: 136.99 million shares

Note: Tesla continues to experience high volatility, influenced by factors such as CEO Elon Musk’s statements, production updates, and developments in the electric vehicle market.
Financial Times

Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR)

Price: $130.18

Intraday Range: $127.37 – $133.35

Volume: 96.61 million shares

Note: Palantir’s stock has been volatile due to its involvement in government contracts and the broader tech sector’s performance.
Investor’s Business Daily+1Barron’s+1
Investor’s Business Daily

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)

Price: $3.55

Intraday Range: $3.09 – $3.62

Volume: 4.87 million shares

Note: As a space tourism company, Virgin Galactic’s stock is sensitive to news regarding spaceflight milestones and regulatory approvals.
MarketBeat

GameStop Corp (GME)

Price: $28.73

Intraday Range: $28.30 – $29.37

Volume: 14.55 million shares

Note: GameStop remains volatile due to its status as a “meme stock,” with price movements often driven by retail investor activity and social media trends.

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC)

Price: $2.74

Intraday Range: $2.74 – $2.81

Volume: 7.86 million shares

Note: AMC’s stock volatility is influenced by the movie theater industry’s performance and investor sentiment.

Grok AI

Highly Volatile Stocks (Examples):

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) – NASDAQ
Why Volatile: As a leader in AI and semiconductor chips, NVIDIA experiences significant price swings due to high investor interest, earnings reports, and market sentiment around AI growth. Posts on X highlight NVIDIA as a top volatile stock for options trading.

Beta: Approximately 1.7 (indicating higher volatility than the market).

Recent Volatility: Known for large single-day moves, especially post-earnings or during tech sector shifts.

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) – NYSE
Why Volatile: Palantir’s focus on AI and data analytics makes it a speculative favorite, with price surges driven by government contracts or retail investor hype on platforms like X.

Beta: Around 2.0, reflecting high volatility.

Recent Volatility: Significant price fluctuations, especially after earnings or news about AI adoption.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) – NASDAQ
Why Volatile: Tesla’s stock is driven by Elon Musk’s announcements, production updates, and broader EV market trends. It’s been a volatile stock for years due to its high valuation and investor sentiment.

Beta: Approximately 2.2.

Recent Volatility: Reports note Tesla’s stock jumping 5.3% in a single session due to news about Musk’s role in the Trump administration.

MicroCloud Hologram (HOLO) – NASDAQ
Why Volatile: This small-cap tech stock experienced extreme volatility due to a short squeeze in February 2024, with shares surging from under $2 to over $60 before crashing. Its low float and speculative nature keep it volatile.

Beta: Around 7.5, one of the highest among listed stocks.

Recent Volatility: Prone to rapid price spikes and drops.

Bitfarms Ltd. (BITF) – NASDAQ
Why Volatile: As a cryptocurrency mining company, Bitfarms is highly sensitive to Bitcoin price movements and regulatory news, leading to sharp price swings. Highlighted on X for high volatility in small- to mid-cap stocks.

Beta: Often exceeds 3.0 due to crypto market dynamics.

Recent Volatility: Daily swings of 10-20% are common during crypto market turbulence.

Categories of Volatile Stocks:
Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks: Stocks like Star Bulk Carriers, Tower Semiconductor, DXC Technology, and Scholar Rock Holding (mentioned on X) are often more volatile due to lower liquidity and higher sensitivity to news.

Biotech Stocks: Companies like Moderna (MRNA) or smaller biotech firms see massive swings based on clinical trial results or FDA approvals.

Tech and AI Stocks: Beyond NVIDIA and Palantir, stocks like Snowflake (SNOW) and Nutanix (NTNX) show high implied volatility due to growth expectations and market sentiment.

Recent IPOs: Newly listed stocks, such as Reddit (RDDT) or Fractyl Health (GUTS), exhibit high volatility due to limited trading history and speculative trading. Reddit’s beta was reported at 9.22 shortly after its IPO.

How to Find Volatile Stocks:
Stock Screeners: Use tools like Investing.com or TradingView to filter for stocks with high beta (>1) or large intraday price gaps. For example, Investing.com suggests screening for mid-cap stocks ($250M-$2B) with beta >1.

Volatility Metrics:
Beta: Stocks with beta >1 are more volatile than the market (e.g., S&P 500). High-beta stocks like Inox Wind (beta 1.86) or HUDCO (beta 1.70) are examples from other markets, but similar principles apply to NYSE/NASDAQ.

Implied Volatility: Check options data on Yahoo Finance for stocks with high implied volatility, indicating expected price swings.

Recent News: Stocks react to earnings, tariffs (e.g., Trump’s trade policies in April 2025), or sector-specific events.

Specific Examples from Recent Data:
April 2025 Market Volatility: Stocks across NASDAQ and NYSE saw extreme swings due to Trump’s tariff announcements, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hitting 50, a level indicating severe market stress. Tech stocks like NVIDIA and Tesla were particularly affected.

X Posts (May 2025): Lists of volatile stocks include NVIDIA, Palantir, and smaller names like Westport Fuel Systems and MakeMyTrip, reflecting current trader focus.

Notes:
Risk: High volatility means higher risk. As noted on Capital.com, 85.24% of investors lose money trading volatile NASDAQ stocks. Always conduct due diligence.

Time Sensitivity: Volatility changes daily. For real-time data, I can search X or web sources for the latest volatile stocks if you’d like.

Sources: Information is drawn from web sources and X posts, ensuring relevance to 2025 trends
https://www.investing.com/academy/stock-picks/volatile-stocks/
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-3-most-volatile-stocks-for-short-term-traders:-april-2024
https://www.cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/most-volatile-stocks/

Evaluation:

For this stock search Grok was superior to ChatGPT.

Grok included significantly more information to explain volatility so that one could find their own stocks and also better understand why the stocks listed as volatile were being included.

Grok also included links to the original sources it was relying upon.

ChatGPT seemed to be pulling data from one recent trading day – making it’s accuracy more risky to rely upon.

Fatal Problems:

Neither ChatGPT or Grok were exhibiting Artificial Intelligence. Rather, they were summarizing / regurgitating information created by others.

Potentially, the information created “by others” could also be computer generated.

So while the information provided may be interesting, its usefulness is limited to just being a starting point for individual analysis – with the important understanding the AI’s may be missing critical information one would find important.

One critical observation is the AI’s are using data from generalized sources and not expert analysis, thus significantly limiting their usefulness to be relied upon for a financial investment. Certainly no one would want to make an investment based on this type of data.

The AI Over Hype

This post may not age well if in a few years AI has become super intelligent, taken over the world and squashed humanity … but for now – yikes the over hype is real.

Seems like every company is promoting their AI this and AI that, even when it’s not really AI but just a computer program doing stuff it has done for years, or even when the “AI” is unnecessary or just plain bad.

I have been reading Billion Dollar Sellers which is an Amazon focused marketing newsletter and it has been breathlessly promoting AI tools (ie making money from paid ads / affiliate links) and promoting fear that unless a seller changes their product listings to be AI focused instead of keyword focused it is game over with no more sales.

For example, be more conversational in your listing to say your kids jeans are good for 5 year old boys who like to play in the mud because AI will use that to recommend your jeans to someone who asks AI for jeans for their five year boy who likes to play in the mud.

Okey Dokey.

First, that’s ultimately just using keywords.

Second, no one searches for products like that.

Third, even if someone searched for a product like that the number of searches are so ridiculously low (as in one) it would be a waste of time to spend limited and valuable product text on that search.

Fourth, even then this is a beginning search inquiry and not a buying inquiry. It is not going to generate sales – that is cash in pocket – compared to a more specific search such as where can I buy the size 10 boys Widget blue jeans.

Can sales be made from creating generalized buying guides? Of course. But what more typically happens is a buying guide recommends a product and then someone does a different search on that product to find the best place / price to get it – and that is where you want to appear.

Amazon doesn’t allow sellers to promote they are the best or have the lowest price so you’re not going to be able to target AI like this Amazon anyway. Maybe on your own website which then links to Amazon, although many sellers are better off selling directly from their own site instead of telling a customer to buy elsewhere.

A few experiences with AI

eBay AI

eBay’s AI will auto create product descriptions for sellers. Wowsa this is terrible. Hard to even call it AI unless you mean Almost Idiotic. It’s bad. Really bad.

Amazon AI

Amazon’s AI will now create brand names for sellers. Right now mediocre at best, assuming Amazon isn’t returning a response that the subject matter of your brand is blocked and no names will be created. Someone is really paranoid because huge swaths of product subjects are blocked.

Amazon will also create product information which is also bad although a bit better than eBay.

For buyers Amazon’s Rufus AI will create a number of questions buyers should look for before buying a product – topics which (1) Amazon does not even have a seller option to address in their product listings (oops), and (2) which are irrelevant to the product.

Even worse is when Rufus is using bad information from product reviews because many consumers are simply idiots or malicious trolls and their idiotic and trolling reviews then become gospel for Rufus about a product. Amazon might as well be telling people to shop elsewhere.

Facebook AI

Facebook will summarize comments about a post so you don’t have to read them. Amazon will do the same for product reviews.

I am find the summaries are so aggregated and generic as to be useless. Sometimes even misleading.

But this is probably good for stupid people who don’t read anyway.

I’m guessing on Amazon there are already Chinese sweatshops manipulating reviews

New Discoveries by AI

Finally, can AI actually do something new? Create solutions to a problem? Cure cancer?

AI does not seem anywhere close to that.

Summarizing previously created information to generate a product description or reviews may not even be considered AI.

Generating new graphics, based on graphics the AI has already been trained on, is just creating more of what already exists.

Ask AI to tell you if a company stock will go up or down next week and you’ll get a non-response and maybe a summary of past positive news and past negative news; maybe even a tip it will go up or down repeating what someone else is saying without making its own projection. In other words, again, just a summary of information from others. There is not an independent analytical analysis, that is actual Artificial Intelligence.

Although Grok by X seems to be getting closer to using existing information to make a future projection.

I gave X Grok and Microsoft Copilot some questions, such as:

will tesla stock go up or down next week?

who is more likely to win the next game between the denver nuggets and oklahoma city thunder

and Grok was miles better than copilot in (1) providing the information it was using to make analysis, (2) analyzing relevant information, and (3) actually trying to make it’s own projection versus repeating what was already listed on another website.

Microsoft Copilot seemed more interested in providing advertising links it could make money from than in providing an actual answer.

I had already removed Copilot from my computers and disabled it in Word and Excel. It can see some potential use in Excel, but otherwise its garbage and these tests didn’t do anything to change my mind that I don’t want it anywhere near my information.

Overall, that is why AI is way over hyped in its current form. Lots of hype, lots of electricity being consumed, little actual tangible benefits.

To be fair, I could have asked ChatGPT to write this post for me and it would have generated something in a few seconds. But it wouldn’t have my personal experience, examples, and specificity. It would just be general stuff summarized from what it “read” elsewhere.

Just to be sure, I asked ChatGPT if AI was overhyped and it responded:

“AI is both overhyped and underhyped, depending on the context.

Where AI is overhyped:

General intelligence: People often overestimate how close we are to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). Despite rapid progress, current AI lacks true reasoning, understanding, and autonomy.

Job replacement: While AI is changing the job market, the idea that it will replace all jobs soon is exaggerated.

Magic bullet solutions: Some companies promise AI can fix everything—education, medicine, creativity—without considering real-world complexity or limitations like bias, hallucination, and interpretability.

Where AI is underhyped:

Productivity tools: AI is already revolutionizing software development, design, and writing, with tools like GitHub Copilot, ChatGPT, and Midjourney enabling faster, more creative workflows.

Scientific discovery: From protein folding (AlphaFold) to drug discovery and climate modeling, AI is genuinely accelerating breakthroughs.

Accessibility: AI has improved lives—think real-time translation, text-to-speech, and tools for the visually impaired.

So, AI is not a miracle, but it’s not just hype either. It’s a transformative tool with real limitations and massive potential.

Would you like a breakdown specific to a field like education, business, or healthcare?”

Frankly, after it said “AI lacks true reasoning, understanding, and autonomy” it should have just stopped and said it’s not really intelligence but a computerized data collector and way to quickly summarize information. Think calculator versus doing calculations by hand. Useful in some contexts, yes, but the over hype is real.

Restoration Hardware Stock – Yikes!

I was looking at the biggest stock losers from the initial blow of Trump’s tariffs and Restoration Hardware led the list with a 40 percent drop.

This high end furniture retailer sources most of its product from China and Vietnam which are hit hard with tariffs.

Is it a deal if the tariffs end?

LOL. Stock prices depend on what others are willing to pay so it doesn’t matter what the company’s actual value is – but I think it’s a turd.

The stock has lost 66% of its value in 3 months so it was already in a serious slide.

The PE ratio is an expensive 40 (!) AFTER the massive 40 percent price drop. Ouch.

RH does not pay dividends. But it apparently just blew $2 billion on stock buybacks to pump the stock price – a tactic by poor management that never works as the stock usually just keeps dropping. Stock buybacks are often just a way to put more stock back in the company which is then paid back out to the executives as extra compensation.

In my book no dividends but stock buybacks is a sign of a bad company to avoid.

Looking at the website and what it sells – yuck. Opinions vary, but I’ve never seen such a collection of massively overpriced simplistic and boring furniture. BORING. Definitely NOT luxury. Definitely NOT unique to create a statement in your home. Did I mention massively overpriced.

So do I think Restoration Hardware is a company to invest in? No. Could the stock have a massive pop if tariffs end? Yes – but only because the stock dropped so lunatic investors will buy … just because. But there isn’t a big upside to this business that would create a surge of orders. It’s not that type of the business and the product selection is meh to begin with.

The best I could suggest if you think this stock has bottomed and tariffs will end is to buy, wait for the quick post-tariff bounce, then sell quickly. There is no long term play here, especially since no dividends are paid.

Sales have been dropping for years but expenses remain static so profit has been dropping. There’s a zillion better places to put your money.

Daily Mail Adds a Paywall Like Other News Sites

The Daily Mail added a paywall today, joining other news sites such as CNN, Fox, NY Post, etc. creating barriers to reading the news and requiring cash payments or at least forking over your email so you can be spammed to death.

Supposedly touted as for just a few stories, it appears the majority of Daily Mail articles are now paywalled.

News sites started carpet bombing their web pages with so many ads it caused many to run to get ad blocker web browsers.

Then the sites started adding “news stories” which are really just affiliate articles pitching products for you to buy for which the news sites gets a commission.

For paying the Daily Mail do you get to avoid ads (without using an ad blocker)?

NO.

Unbelievably, they say for your payment to read articles you still get ads – but supposedly fewer ads.

What a deal!

Seems to me the news model is broken.

But it also appears from a quick search online that the Daily Mail’s chairman is compensated more than $10 million per year and other executives are paid $5 million and up.

Maybe that’s where some savings could be found.

Prediction: the paywalls will be a failure as few signup and it just causes a loss of eyeballs and traffic to the website.

I don’t know what the solution is for news sites, but I doubt paying a monthly fee to get the honor of seeing ads, with articles themselves just being disguised ads pitching products to buy, doesn’t seem like a enticing deal designed with the consumer in mind.

Security Tip: Disable HTML in Emails

If you are getting emails that look like web pages with fancy graphics and formatting then you have html enabled and literally are receiving web pages as email. It also means you are receiving tracking graphics letting the sender (spammer) know you opened the email message and that your email address is valid.

It also means you may be downloading onto your computer viruses and spyware disguised as graphics.

It also makes it more difficult to determine if an email is fake or not. Many emails appear to be from trusted companies with a link for you to click on. The link appears valid – but only if you can hover over the link with your mouse to see where it is really going can you determine if the link is real or not.

For example, an email may appear to be from your bank, such as Chase, with a link that visually says it is to chase.com. But if you hover your mouse over the link to see its actual web address you will see it is actually going to some other website for the purpose of stealing your login credentials or downloading spyware onto your computer.

Using text based email makes it easier to see this criminal activity.

I recommend going for ugly text based email due to security issues with html email