Wisdoma by Brian Kindsvater

An Internet Marketer, Michael Essek, recently wrote a missive defending his business and the Merch on Demand industry as a whole from AI, concluding there was nothing to fear from AI taking away their livelihood.

I disagree. The risk is real. I believe it will happen.

Here is what Essek said:
“No doubt by now you’ve seen impressive looking artwork created in seconds using AI text-to-image tools like Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, Dall-E and others.

Progress in this space has been so rapid that features I thought would be near impossible to develop (decent vector style outputs, accurate text rendering etc.) are already starting to arrive.

Looking at such swift progress, it’s hard not to wonder if this is about to become a very real threat to the humble T-Shirt designer, illustrator or artist trying to make a living from their work.

I mean – if an AI user can produce several decent quality versions of a T-Shirt concept in a matter of seconds, and a print-quality design in a few seconds more…doesn’t that spell curtains for the average designer?

It would seem to be pretty cut and dry on the face of it.

What takes me (an experienced designer) at least an hour to create by hand in Procreate and Photoshop takes AI a matter of minutes using something like Midjourney (and if that’s not the case just yet, it seems likely within a matter of months given current progress).

So how long can we human artists stay competitive if this AI continues to develop at current rate?

Will people really want to pay more for the ‘human touch’ of non-AI designs?

Will marketplaces like Redbubble and Merch By Amazon replace us all with AI designers?

And what about when AI art finally figures out how to draw hands, and do custom lettering that is spelled correctly?

If these questions keep you up at night, I understand.

But I do think there’s one major part of this whole equation that many doomsters and gloomsters are ignoring…

And that’s the IDEA part.

The idea BEHIND and the purpose OF the art – that’s what really matters.

That’s why there is any art in the first place.

Art, artwork, illustrations, and designs can do nothing – and ultimately, won’t exist – if they aren’t part of a bigger picture.

Yes, an AI image might look professional, be aesthetically pleasing, or fool people into thinking it was done by a human – but that doesn’t mean it has any real commercial use, in-and-of itself.

And it certainly doesn’t mean that such art is in any sense a threat to YOU – a designer who understands what people want (and why) – and is able to give that to them in the right way.

So here’s my point: an increase in the USE of AI art tools DOESN’T mean there’s been any increase in the number of people who can develop CONCEPTS for designs that will actually SELL.

In other words – AI art tools do nothing for the person who can’t come up with winning concepts already.

AI cannot spot trends, understand a current joke or meme, identify an appropriate framework for a T-Shirt design based on that joke, and put it all together to create something that moves people to buy.

AI cannot understand why a current aesthetic style is popular, and play on that style using well-known references to produce an original concept.

All AI art does is decrease the cost of just one part of the creative process (the ‘original’ artwork/design side); a part which was essentially dirt cheap even before AI arrived (in particular for the vast majority of T-Shirt designs, which require little more than some text and some simple graphic work).

This is not about listing what AI can’t do to help you feel better – it’s (also) an illustration of all the different parts of the puzzle that have to come together for an idea to go from ‘inside your head’ – all the way to someone’s shopping cart (real or virtual).

That includes the market, the motivations of buyers, the understanding of visual and textual references, types of proven designs and when to use them, the context of a topic, keywords, design choices, how you market, where you sell, and ultimately the strategy behind your business.

As AI only touches on one tiny part of that big picture, you can see why I don’t think it’s a legitimate threat to any smart and savvy designer, or to that designer’s path towards a sustainable business based on their art in the long-term.

That’s a mouthful – but I hope it makes some kind of sense.

TL;DR – Designers panicking over AI Art shouldn’t worry about it – they should focus on the more significant factors that drive success; perhaps the most important of which is the IDEAS behind their designs (which AI is very far from understanding). ”

Interesting perspective. Insightful. But I reach a different conclusion. Here are my thoughts ….

AI is already incredible. I’m selling products that are AI assisted. A few designs are 100% AI it is so good.

For now AI has increased my income.

I’m a realist though, having thought about the long term implications.

“there’s one major part of this whole equation that many doomsters and gloomsters are ignoring…
And that’s the IDEA part.”

What you’re unfortunately likely in the denial stage of grief about what is going to happen, or just don’t want AI to wreck your Internet Marketing business – is omitting the key point that the IDEA will be generated by buyers.

The wordy prompts now being used in Stable Diffusion – buyers will quickly learn how to modify their basic searches into detailed product requests.

Or ChatGPT can provide an assist to a user idea to flesh it out.

AI doesn’t need to spot a trend – although it can and are the basis of many prompts. Buyers can provide the trend.

You don’t think Amazon will automate this? LOL. That is what Amazon does.

Consumer provides a search query and in response Amazon will generate newly made AI created designs on the fly.

You’ve seen RedBubble’s stock price and financials. RB is in trouble.

Guess what huge expenses Amazon and RB can significantly reduce with AI?

1 – commissions to designers.

2 – employee costs (wages, benefits, HR) who have to deal with IP claims and counterclaims, idiots, fraudsters, Chinese copyright thieves, lawsuits, etc.

Will Amazon and RB continue to show human created designs? Sure.

And there will always be a very few branded superstars whose name is what sells the design.

But I expect human designs to gradually be downgraded in the results because they are less profitable – just like Amazon favors Prime listings over non-Prime products.

If there is anything that will hold Amazon back it is waiting for the courts to resolve IP issues. Amazon Merch is extremely conservative about IP issues.

My prediction is just like Google won the IP issue when it copied everyone’s images, websites, books, and literally everything — so will the AI providers win in court.

While I don’t have a time-frame for this, I am 100% confident AI will eventually automate much of the merch marketplaces.

This has to happen.

Amazon will not watch its Merch program die in the face of potential new AI driven marketplaces that can provide unlimited designs and re-designs with lower costs and pricing.

In short: follow the money.

TD Web Services is a web hosting provider in India. They’re cheap so I gave them a try. My short review of TD Web Services is that it is by far the worst web hosting provider I have used in my more than 20 years of experience.

What can you expect? Continual downtime where your websites are not accessible. Repeated IP changes as TD Web changes its hosting information (for whatever reason). Repeated changes to critical website pages such as htaccess, without your permission or notice, which take down your websites. Massive server changes, such as removing cpanel for some other cheap crap from India, which take your sites offline, prevent you from accessing FTP, or accessing your sites.

It’s brutal. It’s mindnumbing incredible. There are lots of web hosts – use someone else. Anyone else.

Interesting character, Jordan Belfort, made infamous in the Wolf of Wall Street movie. What cannot be denied is the incredible amount of money quickly made due to his stock brokerage Stratton Oakmont. After prison Belfort began selling his Straight Line sales system which he used to train the over 1000 brokers at Stratton Oakmont. Most recently, Belfort has mostly stopped his YouTube sales strategy videos and is now promoting crypto – including companies he has a financial interest in. Basically, seems like he has come full circle from being the behind the scenes owner of questionable companies whose stock was being pumped to make him a fortune, to being the investor in questionable companies whose crypto product is now being pumped to make him money. Some things never change, although there is seemingly more disclosure about his financial interest, albeit very minimal disclosure. Pieced together from Wikipedia and other websites is an interesting timeline:

1987 – Stock broker career started.
1989 – Stratton Oakmont founded.
1994 – Belfort banned from Stratton Oakmont and the stock industry to resolve charges of illegal misconduct.
1996 – Stratton Oakmont banned by NASD and put out of business due to continued illegal misconduct.
1999 – Belfort indicted for criminal stock manipulation and fraud.
2004-2006 – Prison sentence and owing $110 million in restitution.
2007 – Wolf of Wall Street book written. Initial book advance paid of $500,000.
2007 – Pays $382,910 in restitution – 50% of his income on parole.
2008 – Pays $148,799 in restitution – 50% of his income.
2009 – Pays $170,000 in restitution – 50% of his income. Parole ends.
2010-2020 – Renting and living on beach in Hermosa Beach, California. Companies JB Holdings / Global Motivation may pay what is mentioned on Zillow as a $20,000 per month rental.
2013 – Wolf of Wall Street movie released.
2022 – Now in Miami Beach and married to 4th wife. Apparently lost $300,000 when a crypto account was broken into.

It is amazing how much money was made in just 5 years at Stratton Oakmont. I have yet to see a discussion about what Belfort was doing between 1994 when he was banned from the stock industry and 2004 when his prison term began. It is known he was wired and obtaining information against others in the industry in order to obtain a lighter prison sentence. Still, there is a 5-year gap between leaving the industry and being indicted, and another odd 5-year gap before being sentenced. It seems reasonable for the first years until 1999 he was living off his prior Stratton money, and possibly ongoing “loyalty” kickbacks from other brokerages which he mentions in his book. But after the indictment I would assume his assets were frozen and after being indicted who would be dumb enough to talk to him and incriminating themselves? Maybe the indictment was sealed.

Still, the craziness occurred within just 5 years.
There is then a decade of what was he doing before entering prison.
Then afterwards there is the book and movie money, some sales and speaking presentations, and now a new reinvention as a crypto guru. Personally, the redemption story was better until the recent move into crypto. IMHO the lure of getting rich quick, the similarity to some of the illegal stock activities, and yet another wife – is uncomfortably similar to what has been seen before. The Wolf has not necessarily changed his spots.

Interestingly, in one of his interviews or sales videos, I don’t remember which, Jordan Belfort says the best stock investing strategy is to avoid individual stocks and just buy the SPY ETF – or entire S&P 500.

In early 2022 Order Desk instituted a massive price increase. The extra income seems to have been pocketed as profit instead of improving the mediocre interface and often poor instructions – but that’s a different story. For what it does the service works and if you need to use it the question is what service plan makes sense given the new pricing.

Old plans prices:
Starter – $12 per month and .25 per order
Pro – $40 per month and .05 per order
Plus – $100 per month and .03 per order

New 2002 pricing:
Starter – $20 per month and .25 per order
Pro – $60 per month and .10 per order
Plus – $125 per month and .05 per year

As I said, those are massive price increases. We’re not talking inflation and it’s not like there are rare supplies that became more expensive. Rather, the main explanation on the Order Desk is to grow the support team, which should not be necessary if, again, the bare bones interface and minimal help pages were re-done.

For breakeven points, it makes financial sense to move from the Starter to Pro plan when you have 270 orders per month or 9 per day.

There may be other reasons to upgrade the plan, such as needing more integrations. But if you are starting out consider 270 orders per month the breakeven point between the Starter and Pro plans.

To move between the Pro and Plus plans the breakeven point is 1300 orders per month or about 43 orders per day.

The rules for day trading or making short sales in a stock account can be hard to decipher, so I have created this handy reference guide.

Note that Robinhood does not allow short sales regardless of your account type or value.

These are United States government rules controlling the activity of US investors. They are not set by the brokerage. The stated purpose behind these rules are to protect small investors from risk and losing their money.

The real reason, in my view, is to protect large corporate investors from competition by keeping small investors small.

Many industries have government imposed barriers, such as licensing (read large money payments to the government) or other barriers enacted into law after lobbying (read bribes to politicians) from entrenched entities seeking to prevent competition. This is done under the guise of some benevolent purpose – such as preventing the small guy from losing their money in the stock market – but which serve to limit competition.

The result is if you want to engage in day trading, and to make money from prices going both up and down, you will need a margin account with at least $25,000 in the account. Otherwise, this money-making privilege is reserved to the already rich and powerful.

My Toyota Highlander is no longer new – we’ve been through 9 years and 160,000 miles. That’s a long time and a lot of miles in one seat.

In some respects the “Truckster” as I call it is showing it’s age. Aren’t we all? But it’s also looking surprisingly good for all the wear and tear. Here are some ideas for keeping your ride happy.

– Keep it clean. Yes, this can be a challenge. Especially when hay and other horse supplies are being transported by those with muddy boots. Instead of letting the dirt build up take just a couple minutes with a vacuum and a cleaner. I’ve found windex works fine on the inside dash and not just for windows.

– Get some touch up paint. You never know when you’ll need it.

– Use the best vinyl cleaner possible on the seats. This is one area where I definitely should have used a higher quality product more often. When the seats get dirty they can be hard to get looking like new again.

– Get in the nooks and crannies. The Highlander is reasonably good at not having too many small places where dirt can accumulate that is difficult to reach. You may need to get into the backseat to reach some of the areas around the front seating area.

– A little squirt of ‘new car smell’ spray every once in a while can also help your senses feel like they are back in a brand new car.